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„„IntegrationWith the increasing penetration of wind power in a larger number of markets, experience has shown that managing large penetrations of variable renewables (wind and solar) can be handled without threatening the stability of the power system, and indeed, in many cases it enhances it, as the system is less vulnerable to the failure of a single large source. Increased interconnection, improved forecasting and facilities for demand management only increase possible penetration levels2. „„Global SpreadAs a look at our country by country breakdown shows3, wind has moved far beyond the ‘traditional’ markets in North America, Europe, China and India to Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Morocco. Argentina, Iran, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam are now the new markets to watch. For four out of the last five years the majority of new installations have taken place outside the OECD, and that is expected to continue.What has NOT changed?„„Huge subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclearEstimates for annual fossil fuel subsidies range from a low of US$500-600 million/annum, up to more than US$5 trillion according to the International Monetary Fund, which includes the damage to climate, human health and the biosphere4. While there have been some moves for subsidy reform in some countries, the basic picture has not changed.„„International policy in the energy sectorDespite the change in rhetoric, international financial institutions are still spending more money supporting fossil fuels than they are renewables, with the World Bank leading the charge5. But why should we be surprised, since their ultimate decision making body is composed of national governments who are doing the same thing?„„Detractors promote myths Mostly financed and promoted by incumbent energy interests, gainsaying the positive benefits of wind power and other renewables has become almost as large a business for internet cranks, trolls and unapologetic fossil fuel industry shills as climate skepticism; and with as little underlying truth. They are too numerous to go into here, but useful industry rebuttal can be found at these links6.„„Ambiguity and instability of government policyThe steady growth and development of the renewable energy sector relies upon stable and predictable government policies. It is still the case that far too many governments talk out of both sides of their mouths and make rapid and sometimes retroactive policy changes which are very damaging to the sector. In the words of IEA (then Chief Economist) Executive Director Fatih Birol: ‘But while variability of renewables is a challenge that energy systems can learn to adapt to, variability of policies poses a far greater risk.’7So what do we know about the future?There are some key developments which seem very likely to occur in the wind industry over the coming decades. How fast and far they go will depend on the broad commitment to a clean energy system globally.COSTS CONTINUE COMING DOWNWhile the recent record low prices for wind in auctions in Peru, Morocco and Mexico (in the case of Morocco under US .03 /kwh) will not be replicable everywhere in the short term, we can expect prices to continue to come down.Recently, the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, NREL and others published an Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs in the journal Nature, under the auspices of IEA Wind. Although the data for the study was collected prior to the record low auction results in the onshore sector over the past year and in the offshore sector in the last couple of months, (and much of it before the dollar dramatically increased in value against the Euro 18 months ago) the study reinforces the trends that we are experiencing and that we expect to see as the industry matures.TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES TO IMPROVEA significant portion of the cost reductions are coming through technology improvements, which are generally evolutionary rather than spectacular, although I can tell you that standing next to one of the new 8 MW machines seems pretty spectacular. In the past several years we have seen the widespread deployment of so-called ‘low wind’ machines, and the deployment of Class II and III turbines in wind regimes which might have formerly seemed most suited for Class I machines. Particularly in places like Brazil, Morocco and Egypt, the steady winds and relatively mild climate mean higher capacity factors and lower cost of energy.And of course we can expect machines to get bigger. One of the reasons for the recent reductions in tender prices for offshore wind is the SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 057